Reliance Mutual Fund presents Fixed Maturity Plans.

Hello friends,
I got a post from Reliance MF some days ago which had my account statements of Reliance MF I hold and also mentioning about their new plan called "Fixed Maturity Plan" (FMP). As you all know that Fixed Deposits are one of the safest way of investment. But its drawback is that the rate of return is very very low. Most FD's offer only up to 8.25%, for about 1-3 years of lock-in period. Also the returns are taxable ( 33.99% ) depending on the level of your income. Another safe investment is PPF (Public Provident Fund). But PPF has lock-in period of 15 years ( Note:you can withdraw part of your contribution only after completion of 6 years) - so its just toooooo long. ( I personally treat PPF not for our generation - but for next generation.) Also there is another option of RBI Savings Bond, but there NRI's cannot invest and premature encashment is not allowed. Reliance wants to provide a blend in this type of reliable investment adding flavours of attractive returns, choice of Maturity periods, and tax efficient returns. They have come up with FMP.

FMP offers various maturity period options - monthly / quarterly / half yearly / yearly and more than one year. You can invest depending upon your requirement of cash flows on maturity. FMP offer minimal risk as compared to normal open-ended debt funds. These open-ended debt funds are associated with 3 kinds of risks : interest rate, credit and liquidity risk. Last but not the least feature of FMP is that it provides tax-benefit. For FD's tax rate is 33.99%, but for FMP's its 22.66% and also indexation benefits are available. If we assume 10% rate of interest/year and compare FD and FMP then calculations tell that assuming 5% indexation rate, and considering tax deductions, we actually get 6.61% for FD and 9.86% for FMP. More information can be found on www.reliancemutual.com

I personally think its a good choice of investment rather than normal FD's of nationalised banks. Only one concern is that, even FMP have very very low risk, they still are venerable to market ups and downs and FMP don't offer guaranteed returns, but it is likely to yield better than FD's. You can also get benefit of double-indexation, where you can get indexation benefit of 2nd year by remaining invested just for some time more than 1 year. So you get benefit if total 2 years, instead of 1 year. Your comments are awaited.

Chips Down for IT

Between February 19 and April 2, the BSE IT index lost 16 per cent! And most equity oriented mutual fund investors were hit by this, with some fund managers maintaining as much as 42 per cent of their fund's assets in this sector. In fact the average exposure of the equity diversified fund category to the technology sector was much as 16.20 per cent! (as of February 28).
But what has caused this sudden blip? Ever since the rupee started appreciating, the BSE IT index started slipping and by May 30, the index had lost as much as 10 per cent (between January 2 and May 30). And when the chips went down, mutual funds were not far behind in offloading their stake in the sector, with 148 equity diversified funds collectively offloading close to Rs 930 crore from the sector. And they did just as well for this move, for while the BSE IT index was in a bear grip, most equity diversified mutual funds were hitting their 52-week highs by June 1, 2007. Domestic mutual funds have surely learnt from their mistakes of 2001.The fear of the rupee appreciation becomes alarming because the Indian technology sector is mostly export led. When the rupee starts appreciating against the dollar, all Indian exports become less competitive in the global market. Earnings then take a hit. While most technology companies have various rupee hedging mechanisms in place, such a drastic appreciation of the currency in a short span of time has taken everyone by surprise. Take for instance the fact that by April 13 this year; Infosys Technologies had put its rupee outlook for the financial year 2008 at Rs 43.10 against a dollar and by April 25 the rupee stood at 40.97 to a dollar.So what is the take away from these developments? Should we start redeeming our funds that are heavy on the tech sector? Well, it is still premature to take such a drastic step. The fact remains that as on June 21 the one-year average return of technology specific equity funds is still unbeatable at 63.83 per cent. With the economy growing impressively, an appreciation or strengthening of the rupee is inevitable. This is bound to hit the earnings of the technology sector and those of other export oriented sectors. So one can expect a rationalisation of earnings from this sector and there is no need to panic yet. Nevertheless, it makes better sense to keep your portfolio balanced across sectors. Overdependence on any sector be it technology or infrastructure will always be a risky proposition. So if you are invested heavily in a technology-specific mutual fund, you could look at reducing your stake here. If you are invested in an equity diversified fund, let your fund manager take the call on re-jigging the portfolio.

Can I give stock as a gift ?

Stocks, bonds or any other securities can be transferred as gifts. Giving the gift of stock also has benefits for the giver. If the stock has appreciated in value, the holder can avoid paying the capital gains tax by giving it as a gift. There are two methods in transferring the ownership of a stock, which depend on how it is currently being held. Now-a-days stocks are hold in electronic form (and not in physical form) which stored in a brokerage account. To gift his stock, the owner should gather the brokerage account information of the person/party they are gifting. The next step is to contact the gifter's broker, pass on the new account information, and order the electronic transfer to the other person/party.

Inflation eases to 13-month low, at 4.28%

The wholesale price index-based inflation declined sharply to a 13-month low at 4.28 per cent for the week ended June 9, down from 4.80 per cent in the previous week.

Inflation was at 5.29 per cent in the corresponding period of the previous year. Higher comparative prices last year during the same week (the base effect) and a decline in prices of primary food articles contributed to lower wholesale inflation.

Finance Minister P Chidambaram attributed the fall in inflation to monetary tightening by the Reserve Bank of India, but said, “It is too early to draw any conclusion. We need to watch inflation in the next 4-5 weeks”.

Analysts agree with Chidambaram’s views. “Various measures taken by the RBI and the government have started yielding results. However, market remains concerned about prices of primary articles,” said Arun Kaul, general manager (treasury), Punjab National Bank.

India iron ore sales to China drying up...

Place: Mumbai

India's once vibrant iron ore exports to China have slowed to a trickle because of a crippling export duty imposed by New Delhi, and orders may dry up entirely if world prices retreat from recent highs.The policy move may leave Indian ore producers, who have been expanding production in the hope of more overseas sales, struggling with surplus material, as Chinese buyers shift their focus to relatively cheaper cargoes from Australia and Brazil.

"There is buying, but it is quite subdued. They are really quite wary," said Rahul N Baldota, vice-president of the Federation of Indian Mineral Industries.

Orders from China, which buys nearly two-thirds of India's iron ore exports, are vanishing after the government slapped an export duty of 300 rupees, or $7.21, per tonne in this year's federal budget.The Indian government, after intensive lobbying by the country's booming steel industry, is trying to discourage exports of the commodity to protect against over exploitation of the resource.Nearly 80 percent of India's exports of iron ore are fines, which need to be made into pellets or sintered before being used in steel mills blast furnaces.Since few Indian mills have the processing facility for using iron ore fines, piles of the commodity, the powdery raw material that comes out along with high-grade iron ore lumps, have started accumulating near the mines, said Sidharth Rungta, president of Rungta Mines Ltd.

Small shipments were still being sold to China as the country was straining to buy cargoes from Australia because of port congestions, which has pushed up world prices by $8 to $65 a tonne for medium-grade ore.This has so far kept Indian prices competitive, despite the new export tax, but prices are expected to fall back soon, traders and analysts said. India is currently offering iron ore fines at around $60 per tonne, free-on-board.

"The congestion in Australia is only a temporary phenomenon. The signs are that it will be over soon and international prices will fall again. It could take the wind out of whatever is remaining of India's exports," said Baldota.Traders said the landed cost of iron ore imports from Australia was at $85-90 a tonne and prices could ease by $10 once the port congestion ease.

BUYERS ABSENT

China's iron ore imports in the first three months rose 23.4 percent to 100.19 million tonnes, customs figures showed.In March, China imported a record 9.84 million tonnes of iron ore from India, despite the introduction of the export tax, as most of the cargoes were contracted before the tax was announced. But Chinese imports of Indian iron ore are likely to halve in April, compared with March figures.

A Shanghai trader said he was seeing some Indian ore traded in the Chinese market, but volumes had dropped substantially.An official at the China Chamber of Commerce of Metals, Minerals and Chemicals Importers and Exporters said Chinese mills were not signing fresh contracts to buy Indian ore.While international iron ore prices were high now, Rungta said he was not bullish in the longer term as Brazil and Australia were expanding mining capacities.

"These are bound to put pressure on Indian exports," Rungta said.

Senior ore industry officials, who did not want to be identified, said that they were hopeful that the government would soften the blow from the iron ore export duty as a high-level panel was reviewing the move.

SAIL's joint venture for steel plant

MUMBAI
State-owned Steel Authority of India Ltd.(SAIL) said on Thursday it is exploring setting up a 4 million tonne integrated steel plant in a joint venture with Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Ltd. and National Mineral Development Corp.

It said a memorandum of understanding for the proposed plant in the eastern state of Chhattisgarh would be signed after receiving necessary approvals.Ahead of the news, shares in SAIL eased 0.04 percent to 134.05 rupees in a slightly firmer Mumbai market.

Sandip Sabharwal: Bull market may continue...

In the past two months, global markets have fallen substantially on inflation fears and central banks’ responses to the same. The inflation argument in India has been carried forward too far. In reality, inflation has little impact on the direction of stock markets. An analysis of the past 20 years’ history of the Indian market reveals there have been bear markets in periods of very low inflation and bull markets in periods of very high inflation. For example, the Japanese market had been in a bear phase for years, during times of zero interest rates and negative inflation. To understand the impact of inflation on markets, we have to understand why there are inflationary pressures. Inflation picks up where there is growth and declines when growth slows.

Today, when growth is picking up in Japan, the market is doing well and is expected to do well, as long as the economy expands, companies increase profits and consumers are confident. The era of very low inflation seems to be over globally. The faster central banks globally come to terms with this fact, the better it is for the global economy. This is because, contrary to the 1980s and 1990s — when growth in the world economy was not as widespread as it is today, and overall growth was driven by growth in the US, Europe or South-East Asian Tigers — today, there is growth all around. China and India have emerged as strong engines of growth. Other BRIC economies, as well as Middle East economies, are growing at 7%-plus. Growth in Europe has also picked up and Japan is growing after more than 15 years. Even Africa is growing at rapidly, driven by a commodity bull cycle. Such widespread growth will lead to inflation.

The second factor is that currently, there is very high inflation in metals, oil and agri-commodities. Agri-commodity inflation is mainly due to two reasons — firstly, growing prosperity worldwide is leading to increased consumption of food grains; secondly, diversion of products like palm oil, corn etc to bio-fuels production is creating a demand-supply gap in these products. It is unlikely that agri-commodity inflation will come down anytime soon. This is because, increasing production of agri-commodities is a long-term process; it involves increasing acreages and improving productivity, which cannot be done in a year or two. Monetary policy can do little to reduce agri-commodity inflation.

Under these circumstances, the response of central banks becomes critical. Under the current scenario, excessive monetary tightening may not reduce inflation significantly, but it can impact growth negatively, as costs for corporates rise and consumer demand is affected. The US Fed seems to be realising that excessive tightening can take the economy to recession, without bringing down inflation significantly. Over a period of time, as supply of various commodities increases, inflation will reduce to a certain extent. Moreover, the impact of monetary policy on demand is normally felt 18 months after the action.

In the current situation, when interest rates have already risen substantially over the past four years, a policy of status quo is desirable. Given the current interest rate scenario, economic growth in India is likely to slow down to around 8.2% for FY08. However, long-term growth prospects remain bright and the next 10-15 years should see average growth of 8-10%. Overall view on the equity market remains positive for both the medium and long term. The market is trading at valuations of 14.7x ’08E earnings on the large-cap side, while mid caps are trading at a substantial discount at 11.5-12x ’08E earnings. From these levels, the downside to the market looks limited. Over the next few days, the market can potentially move down by 6-7%. But from there, it should be able to give a return of 18-20% p.a. over the next three years.

The bull market may continue over the next few years. But the Indian market is now integrated with global markets. Global market movements, like that of May ’06 and February ’07, will affect the market in the short run, but in the long run, individual markets will perform on their own merits.

Originally By Sandip Sabharwal - CIO,JM Financial Mutual Fund.