Aircraft manufacturer Airbus foresees a demand of 24,300 new passenger and freighter aircrafts which are valued at about $2.8 trillion. This visualization is for the period till 2026. The Annual Global Market forecast of Airbus says that it will create an average annual delivery of around 1,215 aircrafts, which is certainly a big number. Although this will give a boost to manufacturing sector of airplanes but there are two grave problems to this growth. First is the fuel cost. As the world knows, the fuel prices have risen sharply in past 2 years which was not even foreseen by the economy analysts. This sudden rise in fuel prices (A nice article about this: The Price Of Oil: affecting factors and it's future...) is another game of the gap between supply and demand. By, 2026 the fuel burnt per 100 passengers per Kilometer is expected to be 3 litres!
The next problem is of the air traffic. Even today the Air traffic controllers are having a tough time to resolve the traffic problems. In world's most developed cities like NewYork, Los Angeles, Hong Kong and even our own amchi Mumbai the condition is very close to saturated. The condition in 2026 will be horrible if no solutions are put in place. One of the solution to increase efficiency is to discontinue the old planes which consume more fuel and deploy new planes. But again the degree of practicality is associated with it. In India, the aviation sector has seen a downfall in last 6-10 months and there is a very tough competition. Even the customers will be increasing in future, the scenario will be same. Invest wisely in Aviation sector.
Sunday, May 18, 2008
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